Update #4 – April 1, 2020 *

Comments on today’s report, April 1, 2020.

I’m opening up this to discussion, with one caveat – NO POLITICS. I’m very political myself, but the discussion on this post should be limited to questions/observations about the numbers only. As soon as I see a political post, I’ll go back to a no discussion policy. These reports tend to get lost down in the feed pretty quickly. Remember, to retrieve them, just do a search for “covid19 tracking” and they’ll be there.

THE DATA

1) Encinitas numbers are steadily increasing. Something to keep an eye on. The doubling rate is 3.8 days, quite a bit faster than the nation’s rate of 5.1 days.

2) California still has 57,400 pending tests. I’m not sure what the problem is; it’s been over 50,000 for several days now.

REPORT CHANGES

1) Added Tests per 10k people. I think that’s a much easier number to understand. So, for example, if you know the population of Encinitas is around 60,000, you can use the tests per 10k number for CA and guesstimate that around 45 people in the whole city have been tested. For the US, this number is just over 30. For Iceland, it is over 350, and for South Korea, it is over 65.

2) Added 2 new rows showing projected new hospitalizations over the next 30 days. 1st row is based on 10% hospitalization rate; 2nd row based on 20% hospitalization rate. The projection is based on today’s rate of change. We don’t know exactly what the true hospitalization rate will be. Currently, the hospitalization rates in California have ranged from 10% in San Luis Obispo to 28% in Santa Clara County. It is currently 20.2% in San Diego County.

3) I’ve added 3 graphs, so that it’s easier to see trends. Right now, there are still too few data points, but over time, these will be more useful. The chart on doubling rate is a good example. Encinitas looked very hopeful on 3/30 and 3/31, but with today’s number the city returns to a doubling rate of less than 4 days. Note that all the localities being tracked have consistently been between 2 and 8 days, indicating growth that is out of control. Once again, thank you for your comments and suggestions. And please, if you find a math error somewhere, let me know! Stay well everyone!

Comments from Readers & My Responses

The following are some of the comments from readers on Reddit and other social media platforms where I regularly post. Reader comments are in italics and color. My responses are in plain text. If there is more than one commenter without a response, they are separated by different colors.

Do you know if those numbers for Encinitas reflect any patients at Scripps?

I think they do, but that’s just from what people on ND have told me. There’s no official breakout, as far as I know, of who’s where.

This is the site that many news agencies actually use and updated in real-time: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Thanks Olivier. The site I use, Worldometer, uses the Johns Hopkins site for its data as well. It lags slightly behind the Johns Hopkins site (about an hour or so), but I don’t think that makes a huge difference.

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