Puzzled

Question for you data nerds out there. I’ve been trying to replicate the exact numbers for cases that the state is using, and so far, I’ve been stymied. Here’s the cases reported by the state.

As you can see, this is pretty close to the data I have, which I download from the CA DHHS database every day.

Here are CA’s calculations for daily cases per 100K in population:

And here are daily cases from my database, both in raw data, and 7 day moving averages. Keep in mind, these are calculated from the cumulative cases, which are very close to what is shown in the screenshot above.

Now, I take those daily cases and compute the case rate per 100K, both for raw data as well as 7 day moving averages:

Now compare this to what the state is showing. For San Diego, they’re showing 5.8. I’m getting 7.9, both for raw and 7 day averages. For LA County, they’re showing 13.1, while I’m getting 12.7 for both. For Orange County, they’re showing 5.6, while I’m showing 9.8 based on a 7 day avg. and 8.4 for raw data.

Anyone have an idea why these numbers don’t agree? I’m sure I’m missing something here, but so far, I haven’t been able to figure it out. By the way, here are the population numbers I’m using, all from the US Census:

Speaking of data, I’m considering changing my data source from the CA DHHS and covidtracking.com to covidactnow.org. They have a whole team with dozens of people working on data and modeling, and provide an API for all of it. If anyone is familiar with this source, please let me know what you think. Today’s charts are all from them.

Also, another redditor asked me to compare numbers today with what they were when California first opened up. Actually, there was no “reopening” in our state. But around June 19, many of the severe lockdown restrictions were removed, and restrictions were based on county metrics rather than statewide conditions. So these charts all show a line with values around that data.

In my next post, I’ll show some more of the charts available from covidactnow.org. I’ll keep tracking zip codes and cities in SD County, and we’re getting close to being able to track nearly 20 communities in LA County.


Election Day is in 63 Days

Sick of the pandemic and ready for a change? Your vote counts, no matter where you live. So plan now: check your registration, make sure your family and friends do that, and motivate others to save our country. And don’t wait until the last minute to drop your ballot in the mail!

Also, here’s another great site where you can track the status of your ballot: https://california.ballottrax.net/voter/

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