Update #3 – March 31, 2020

Comments on today’s report, March 31, 2020.

THE DATA

1) The cases per 10k people in CA and SD is less than half that of the nation. Note, though, that while 1/3 of 1% of the US population has been tested, 1/4 that many people have been tested in CA.

2) The doubling rate in Encinitas looks artificially low to me, as does the case count. I admit this is based on anecdotal data from the front lines — see REPORT CHANGES, #4 below.

3) The case rate per 10k people worldwide is 1/5 that of the nation. Keep in mind, though, that many nations throughout the world have inadequate or nonexistent testing facilities.

REPORT CHANGES

1) I compile these reports after SD County releases their data around 4pm. If you want to see the most recent data before 5pm, do a search on “Covid19 Tracking Report” and select the report with the date in the header.

2) I’ve changed the wording on cases to “Total Cases as of Today” and “Cases as of Yesterday”. The old wording made it confusing whether that was cumulative case count or new cases.

3) I’ve added a row, “Cases per 10k People”. You can use the row “As Pct of Population” to compare localities, but the percentages are so small that it’s hard to grasp what they mean. On a world scale, this statistic is typically normalized based on 100K or even 1mm people, but since we live in smaller towns, I thought 10K would be a better basis.

4) I heard from a nurse on the front lines who reported they have more COVID19 patients than then number on the report. I suppose it takes SD County, the source of my local data, 24 hours or so to verify and compile everything. This points out the importance of looking at trends, not just the daily numbers.

Once again, thank you for your comments and suggestions. And please, if you find a math error somewhere, let me know! Stay well everyone!

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