Update #2 – March 30

Comments on today’s report. Sorry for the length, but quite a few people DM’d me with suggestions.

1) two of you wanted to include Carlsbad stats, so I’ve done that.

2) I moved the population figures below the fold, since those won’t change from day to day.

3) I’ve added a row, “Doubling Rate in Days”. This shows how many days it will take for the number of cases to double, based on the percentage change from the previous day. This is a key indicator of how fast the pandemic is moving. For example, if you start out with 2.6 days to double and 50 cases, in 38 days, you’ll have 3.3 million cases. This is why hospitals get overwhelmed so quickly. That said, the trend line of days to double is important, since daily variations can create a lot of statistical noise. The US has a doubling rate of between 3 and 5 days. South Korea has a doubling rate of 65 days, and China now has a doubling rate of 555 days.

4) One person suggested adding stats on the seasonal flu. There are a few reasons why I don’t want to do that: a) I’m running out of room on a single page; b) I don’t want to add to the confusion comparing seasonal flu with coronavirus; c) I can’t get reliable stats for anything but the US as a whole.

5) One person opined that mortality rate should be based on closed cases. Again, availability of data is the problem. As far as I can tell, California is the only state reporting pending cases. Without that, all you have are gross case numbers for all the other localities. In the spirit of “apples to apples” comparisons, it seems to make more sense to base the mortality rate on deaths / cases.

6. One person asked for a copy of the spreadsheet I created, so they could do it for other neighborhoods. I’d be happy to provide you with a copy, but first I need the following info when you DM me: a) your email address b) the format you need. I use Open Office, so I can convert for other platforms. However, I can’t guarantee all the formulas will translate perfectly. If I’ve made a math error somewhere, please send me a DM. I don’t claim to be infallible! I’m doing the daily posting between 4:30pm and 6pm daily. This is because SD doesn’t publish data until around 4pm daily. Thanks to everyone for your feedback!

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