Charts and Graphics with this Update
- E2 – Cumulative Cases per 1M, 7 Countries
- E3 – Daily New Cases per 1M, 7 Countries
- E6 – Daily Fatalities, 7 Countries
- LD1 – Local Dashboard [SD Only]
- VS1 – Vital Statistics, San Diego Area
- VS2 – Vital Statistics, Southern California & 5 States
- VS3 – Southern California Snapshot
Current Events Commentary
In Oklahoma, Trump told his audience that he asked his staff to cut down on testing. Around the country, epidemiologists, along with those who care for the people who are sick and dying from COVID-19, were outraged. The next day, Peter Navarro claimed this was one of Trump’s jokes. Trump though, said this: “I don’t kid. Let me just tell you. . . I say it all the time. I know some people thought it was tongue-in-cheek.”
Today, the European Union considered measures to be taken in order to reopen their economies on July 1. One of these measures is a ban on nations that have done exceptionally poorly in handling the pandemic. The U.S., along with Russia and Brazil.
For a couple of years, we were the laughing stock of the world. Now we are the object of pity, and deemed too dangerous to be allowed into Europe.
E2 shows how we compare to the six other countries on a per million people basis. There’s the U.S., at 7,226 cases. Second is Sweden, the country covid-deniers here sought to make a model, with 5,947 cases. Brazil is zooming upward with 5,496 cases. Two countries that have flattened the line almost completely are Denmark and Germany, at around 2,300 cases.
E3 tells the same story with daily new cases per 1M. Brazil leads the pack with 152 per day, followed by Sweden with 105, and then the US with 89. And Denmark and Germany: they’re both at 8.
Apologists for Trump may try to persuade us that these are just cases, that we look so bad because we test so much. If that were the case, then our fatality rate would be quite low. But as E6, shows, the U.S. is right there with Brazil and Mexico in daily fatalities: Brazil at 1,045, the U.S. at 652, and Mexico at 558. Germany is now around 10 per day. And Denmark? They had a slight uptick over the past two days — from 0 to 1.
Over the past few month, I’ve encountered a few Trumpsters who bemoan my mixing of politics and pandemics. They urge me to put a wall between them. That might be a reasonable request in Italy or Germany, where liberals and conservatives alike follow public health officials and science, resulting in containment of the virus.
But here we have a president who not only refuses to endorse the most minimal of public health initiatives like wearing masks, but actively engages in creating potential super-spreader events in heavily affected states like Oklahoma and Arizona.
I got a few questions about the last two numbers posted by the county [See LD1] for cases – 310 on 6/21 and 302 on 6/22. That’s something that’s worth keeping an eye on, but it’s not a trend — yet. Fatalities in the county haven’t taken a huge jump, so this may be noise. We need a few more days to see.
The city of San Diego also posted some significant gains in cases on those days – 153 on 6/21 and 146 on 6/22. That was about 40% higher than the numbers the previous 3 days. Again, though, we don’t have a clear trend yet.
There are quite a few cities in the county, as shown on VS1, that are in the doubling day danger zone, i.e., 30 days or less: Escondido, at 29; Oceanside, at 28 days; Encinitas, at 29 days; Vista at 30 days; and San Marcos, at 30 days. This is the first time I’ve seen Oceanside in the red column for doubling days. On the bright side, all ten zip codes I’m covering are now over 30 days in case doubling.
I’m going to keep the rest of my comments about county data short today. I’m still trying to complete the data reorganization I mentioned when I posted the new county data a couple of days ago.
On VS2, it’s good to see LA and SD counties over 30 doubling days for cases at 37 days for SD and 31 days for LA. Orange, Riverside, Kern, and Ventura are still under 30 days, meaning that before the end of July, Orange may have over 20,000 cases compared to the 10,563 it has today.
VS3 visually conveys a sense that things are bad as far as cases, but better as far as fatalities. Daily cases, for example, are in the red across the board. However, we have to keep reminding ourselves that fatalities are a lagging indicator, so if case metrics look bad today, fatalities may very well follow that course in 2 to 3 weeks.
That’s it for today. I realize things are a bit hap-hazard on my end. I hope to complete my reorganization in about a week, and everything should look much more organized then.
Stay safe and healthy, everyone!
Hey zorgi, always look forward to your updates!
I don’t know if you heard today, but the san diego county board of supervisors passed 4-1 (thank god we have one person with a brain on that board) to send a letter to the governor about reopening wedding venues and hotel conventions… etc WTF! How can they even think of this, after we just had our worst 2 day stretch. Extremely disappointed that all they care about is money, do they not realize things aren’t getting better
Some people start steaming from the ears when I call the Republican Party a death cult, but this is why. And what do you want to bet that if COVID-19 was ravaging Kristin Gaspar’s neighborhood the way it is in San Ysidro, she would be out there demanding the government do something? As long as it’s mainly restaurant workers, hotel workers, farm workers, inmates in ICE facilities, prisoners, and nursing home occupants, and other varieties of expendable workers, these wealthy, white, and privileged people feel quite comfortable recruiting their “warriors for Wall Street.”
Death cult lol never heard that one before. Keep up the good work Zorgi. Your daily updates are valuable for the community ❤️
Thanks, appreciate the feedback!
I am scared of getting this virus. I have little to no reason to be scared, but I am. I’m scared of accidentally spreading the virus to friends and those friends spreading the virus to their family/friends and so on. I also just don’t like being sick. I especially don’t like worrying about whether or not I’m sick or getting sick. I don’t like taking my temperature 5x a day, using my pulse oximeter to make sure I stay above 98%, or washing my hands every hour. I don’t like the skin rash that’s developed on my wrists or the million little cuts around and in between my knuckles from my skin drying out. My hands hurt. I don’t mind wearing a mask when I’m out and about but I don’t like the jealous anger I feel when I see others without one on.
Honestly, I just don’t like being angry all the time. I’m angry because I’m embarrassed. I’m embarrassed because I didn’t think things would be this bad. I actually thought this might bring people together. I was wrong. I’m starting to think that this subreddit is an echo chamber for me. We all agree with each other but we don’t represent the majority of the people out there and we attack people that do. We have to understand that people and our elected officials are done, they have weighed the risks against whatever information they have, and they’ve decided to move forward. They’ve accepted that there will be more infections, there will be a lot more people that die, and they’ve decided that’s ok with them. I don’t think we can change their opinions anymore and I don’t think it’s worth the effort.
I’m slowly giving up. Succumbing to them, accepting the acceleration of the inevitable. Hopefully it will free my mind; hopefully it won’t kill anyone. I appreciate that you continue to provide data for us to interpret and I hope my message doesn’t discourage you from doing so. Hopefully something changes but I don’t think it will. I used to say it would take a foreign enemy attacking us on domestic soil for us to abandon our political ideologies and our financial greed, realize that we’re just humans and fight together, but this virus was an enemy and it’s showed us a disturbing reality; we’re not the United States of America. We’re just the States of America and we don’t want to be united.
I remember over 50 years ago when I was living in NYC. The Vietnam War was raging. I was convinced there was going to be a nuclear war. I wasn’t sure it was worth it to keep on living.
I talked to a professional about my downward spiral before it resulted in tragedy. I couldn’t foresee back then the incredible life I would lead, the woman I would be with for 46 years, the amazing son and daughter I would have, the three beautiful grandchildren I would be able to hug and squeeze and kiss. It was very difficult when I was 18 to have a sense of perspective. After all, I hadn’t been a conscious person on the earth for very long.
I’m not implying that you’re young. Obviously, I know nothing about you. But I do know from personal experience it’s easy to get into a self reinforcing decline, and that seems to be what you’re describing in your life.
In addition to talking to someone, think about what activities refocus your mind. Maybe it’s hiking, or photography, or art, or exercise — just carve out a time in the day to do that, and do it regularly until it becomes a habit.
Finally, I would add this: I am actually very optimistic. When I was a protester during the Vietnam War, no one talked about voting. We were clearly in the minority. The civil rights movement and the anti-war movement had some crossover, but they were largely separate (which is why the FBI hated MLK so much).
My generation has given its children a steaming pile of shit as its generational inheritance, which is why I really hate it when boomers like me whine about the millenials and how they can’t “tough it out.” But young people today are showing us how to fight back, how to translate protests into votes, how to make society as a whole really think about its institutions and what they ought to be doing.
I hate to bring out an old cliche, but it’s always darkest before the dawn.
Thank you for writing, and good luck.
God damn, you give us good numbers and help talk people off ledges.
We don’t deserve someone like you!
This was actually not the intention of those reaching out on behalf of the wedding industry. They were wanting to send a letter to get a better idea of when they could re-open, they weren’t asking for wedding venues to be immediately re-opened.
The message was distorted and the status put out as a summary from the meeting was not the intention of those advocating for the wedding and event industry.
good to know that – thanks for the clarification.
I probably should have clarified that my concern wasn’t that I believe things such as weddings and hotel conventions are opening up anytime soon, rather concerned that we had almost 1,000 new cases in 3 days and couldn’t believe that our San Diego leaders were already thinking about reopening much larger group gatherings.
I do agree with you. The numbers and data are not good. People are acting like we’re not still in the midst of a pandemic and that’s absolutely terrifying, for lack of better words.
It’s tough because as someone in the wedding industry – I definitely would like a better timeline of when I can go back to work and take a client’s deposit for a wedding date (hence why a lot of us are pushing to get a better idea of when things will re-open), but if the numbers continue climbing like they have, the wedding industry is going to be in some serious trouble.
Please keep up the good work. Your posts are very very much appreciated and I know you go through a lot of time and energy to create them. And you’re passionate about them and they help everyone so that makes it even more appreciated , on my end at least.
Per the politics thing :
While I agree with you about conservatives and Trump in general, I’ve gotta also mention that Ocean Beach , which seems full of hippies, also doesn’t seem to believe in masks. I’ve driven through there several times and saw something like 80% of the people not wearing masks or giving a damn and even before the opening up. I don’t think this is only a conservative issue, it’s a country issue. We’re a country which believes in “rugged individualism” and it’s heavily reflected. People here can debate whether or not they think climate change or actual racism exist , even though they factually do. So it’s not surprising to see that it’s happening with this as well. And while I may just by default assign that to conservative politics alone, I’ve seen some of it in liberals and liberal areas as well. Which is incredibly annoying lol. Of course, I don’t think it’s only ignorance which is among why people take stupid risks – I think a lot of it is also mental exhaustion. At some point a lot of people have just given up vigilance because they are tired and have reached capacity. Anyway. Thank you again for posting this and I really do appreciate your work. I check this every day!
Totally agree with you. There’s a huge amount of science denial in the “left”, especially when it comes to health issues. And let’s not forget, the whole anti-vaxxer thing mainly started amongst self-described liberals who were attracted to Wakefield’s supposed discovery about causes of autism.
And as Daniel Kahneman points out in that great book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, ALL of us fall for logical fallacies. Universally, our brains are bad at assessing probability. We have to train ourselves not to think tribally (which is why it is so ridiculous when people claim, “I’m not a racist!”). People on the left and the right fall for conspiracy theories, because our brains clamor for order.
And, as you very rightly point out, people get exhausted with following the rules.
Thanks for bringing up OB! As a resident Obecian its really disappointing to see so few masks, especially on the weekends. However, I think/hope that a lot of the “maskless” are tourists. Now that things are reopening we’ve been getting a huge influx of big groups camping out all day on the beaches and going out to the bars and restaurants.
If you walk around town on a Tuesday morning its a 50% split between the masked and the maskless. Personally I’m wearing a mask everywhere and not dining indoors or going to a bar anytime soon. A lot of locals I talk to are staying home and not going out so the maskless will continue to dominate our streets in the public eye and continue to perpetuate the idea that people aren’t wearing masks or social distancing.
As a hippie/Green party member I do have to agree that some people on the left go off the deep end into conspiracies rather than trust science or the news. In the meantime, I’ll be avoiding all the things that made me move here in the 1st place namely the beach on the weekends and farmer’s market.
I’m exhausted by the stupidity not the rules.
This is what I’m seeing up in North Park; there’s a much higher percentage of people wearing masks along University during the week than on the weekends. I’ve got to suspect it’s people coming into NP that lower this number during the “going out” periods of time. Most businesses here are doing a good job with distancing and mask requirements, but there are a couple that don’t seem to care. Coincidentally these businesses seem to be populated less by locals and more by out-of-NP visitors.
A lot of people have been pointing to California as becoming the next NY or even worse due to the amount of cases. I usually end up commenting pointing out that 1. CA has the highest test rate in the nation and 2. CA has the highest population, yet their case per/100,000 is fairly low. Of course not all of the new cases are attributed to increases in testing (and the fact that the president is suggesting that is horrible), but it is a factor. I’m curious to see wether or not Newsoms mask order has any real effect on CA’s cases in the next 10 days. I think it’ll have a slight effect (hopefully), because imo it might lead to more people staying at home due to the increasing nature of COVID
I agree with you. Cumulative cases aren’t the most important metric, IMO. In fact, I’d put that pretty far down on the list. Daily increases, fatality rates, Rt, HUR, IUR, etc. are all much more important indicators. Next time I review the states, probably in 2 or 3 days, I’ll use the Z-score for them too. My hunch is that CA will be better than most of the other states.
I was looking at this data set the other day: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s
One thing that I noticed is that a lot of north east states are seeing a sharp drop in new daily cases. I haven’t had time to look into it more, so I don’t know what conclusions to draw from this yet.
Not sure about all states in the northeast, but my mom is in Connecticut and their cases were concentrated in the part of the state next to NYC. The rest of the state was never hit that bad. I feel like the shutting down of NYC likely contributed to that decrease, but aside from that, I know their reopening has been a lot slower. They only just now opened up indoor dining, movie theaters, and gyms, and had weeks of outdoor dining before making that move. This also doesn’t make sense to me because summer in CT can be pretty brutal in terms of heat/humidity, whereas we have beautiful weather all the time – but we jumped straight into indoor and outdoor dining. In Massachusetts, same sort of thing. My friends there have shared that their reopening of businesses was done more slowly than ours was. I feel like every week here something new was opening, without enough time or consideration of whether those openings had a negative impact on the situation. Lastly, New England tends to be full of blue states, which I’d think certainly contributes to mask-wearing, since that’s now become so political.
Edit: As of this morning, they’re now requiring a 14-day quarantine for anyone who’s traveled to states with high coronavirus rates. So again, I do think their governors are taking things a lot for seriously and slowly.
They got hit really hard early on. They locked down. I have a feeling maybe more people there know it’s no joke and they have to take it seriously. Those are just off the cuff answers though. The spread of this thing is something that virologists and social scientists will be looking at for years.
Legend status man. The community loves ya Zorgi. Thank you as always for the tremendous work and dedication you put in everyday to keep us updated. 🤘
thanks, I so appreciate the feedback
Brilliant. I, for one, appreciate the intertwining of politics and pandemic. Sadly those that need to hear it most will ignore it or outrightly fight it.
Thank you. I’ve tried to engage some of these people, but they employ such twisted reasoning it’s hard to have a meaningful exchange.
Hearing that Houston ICU is at 90% capacity. Are we anywhere near that? Also do you think going to Urgent Care right now is safe?
I’m not OP and can’t do anything close to what he does, but if you want to see specific triggers for the county of SD, you can view them here: desktop or mobile. This includes the ICU numbers that you’re looking for! As of yesterday we are at 62% capacity, with the trigger being when we get to 80% or higher.
It depends on the locality. I’ve heard that some hospitals in South Bay are at capacity. Overall in the county, though, I don’t think we’re at that point. But I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know for sure. Even though hospitalization trends are supposed to be one of the main criteria for opening up, just try to find easily accessible data on it! All you can get are daily hospitalizations / icu by county, but judging whether that puts us at full utilization is really guesswork.
Bless you Zorgi for your continued efforts and infinite sass.
Just thought I’d add a quick tidbit of info. On the 20th of June, SD county reported 310 cases with a 7% positivity rate. Initially, there was no asterisk next to the test number, indicating that there was no batch of prior tests in the count. However, taking a look at the same graph now, there’s an asterisk next to the case number, indicating that that day had received a batch of prior tests, probably artificially inflating the positivity rate from that day
haha, yet another reason why I only use 7 day moving averages and don’t really pay much attention to daily numbers from anywhere.
Honestly I need to start doing this. Yeah, I thought I’d mention this because in another thread on this subreddit, there was a pretty popular post discussing the 7% positivity rate. One user commented that it was concerning due to their being no back-log (rightfully so), and many agreed. But when I looked at the graph this morning I was quite surprised to see that they had updated it. Guess it’s a good thing as SD remains extremely stable 😅😅
How much time do you spend on this?
Too much! That’s why I’m trying to reorganize everything. But reorganizing takes time too.
Thank you. You’re Nobel Peace Prize worthy.
OMG, you’re giving me a swelled head! But thank you!
Hahaha! I get that, but I really look forward to your posts and cannot believe that a person I don’t know on Reddit is managing info more completely than the federal government We’re in crazy times and you are very much appreciated. Thank you 🙏.
I can only give a couple bucks but if you post your paypal info I can send you something to help out. Your info is really priceless and I reconize how much time and effort it takes.
Wow, that’s really nice of you. If you want to donate, I’d love it if you sent your bucks to the Equal Justice Initiative, here: https://support.eji.org/give/153413/#!/donation/checkout
i can do that! Donated! Thanks for the work that you put into this.
That is so great of you! Thanks. Have you seen the documentary “13th” on Netflix? If not, please see it; you’ll see why the Equal Justice Initiative is such a worthy organization.
I always appreciate your mixing of politics and pandemics! I assume the Trumpsters are irritated by it because the concrete facts and observable data don’t support their fractured ideologies.
Thanks for all you do! I have been reading your posts daily since they started. A tremendous service you are doing.
Thank you for being the calm voice of reason and logic. Numbers don’t lie, especially with Zorgi at the helm. Thanks again
Thanks so much! No, they don’t lie, but sometimes I goof, so let me know if I do!
Thank you so much for delivery this information in a way that is readable to someone like me who doesn’t understand how to read data very well. I can see the incredible effort you put into each of these updates for us as a community.
I also really appreciate you taking the time to answer the questions in the comments. It’s a whole other mountain of a task and I hope when this is all said and done you get the recognition you deserve! Thank you.
Thank you. But really, the comments and appreciation I’ve received here are more than I ever expected. It’s the people on the front lines, especially the health care workers, who are the really deserving people in this mess.
Hi thanks for all your data crunching. I was wondering do you know anywhere that has data on cases, hospitalizations, deaths etc by age group that gives absolute numbers? Most of the stuff I’ve found is per 100,000 or something like that.
For cases and fatality, go to worldometer or the covid tracking project. Hospitalizations — that’s a whole different story. I get consistent data from CA DHHS for counties, but that’s only the number hospitalized / icu for that day.
Thanks, I was talking to friends and was trying to find out how many people aged 30-40 were hospitalized versus total coronavirus cases in that age group. Everything I found is # per general population per 100,000 isn’t useful comparing the actual % chance of a hospitalization if you contracted the virus.
It’s currently 8.6%
I’m curious to know if you’ve done any analysis showing the mortality rates based on age demographics. I’m computing 0.09% mortality rate (1 out of 1131 infected people) for those under age 34. Also, a 0.59% mortality rate for those under 60 years old. These numbers are based on the June 21st version of the California Department of Public Health statistics. The numbers are growing, understandably so since the relaxing of the health orders but I strongly feel that the data is not being presented fairly/responsibly by anyone. People may become less worried when they learn that 68.9% of deaths are from those over 70 year old, and 93.9% of deaths are from people over 50. No disrespect intended. I understand the importance of presenting data in the most conservative manner, but I don’t think some ‘good news’ would be irresponsible.
See my answer to /u/agyness_zeppelin above.
As for good news, I try to present it wherever I see it. I gave SD County the highest Z-score because of that.
I would offer much more detail on demographic data, but it takes a lot of manual research to get it. I’m at the point where I have to rely on API’s to get the data in order to have time to write the commentary. At one point, I was about to dispense with the commentary on most days, but then a whole bunch of people told me they wanted it.
Lot’s of good information here. Just a couple questions from someone new to this thread: Are any of these statistics looking at age? Age of people being hospitalized, age of fatalities, etc? Broadly speaking from a statistical standpoint, this seems to be a disease that kills old people. “Young” people (let’s say 40 and under with no pre-existing conditions) seem to be able to kick this disease without a problem. Sure, there are anomalies and stories you hear of so and so young person who is an athlete and had no pre-existing conditions etc, etc. But fatality rates still appear very low for young people who want to resume normal life and be able to provide for themselves and their families. And isn’t this how herd immunity is established?
I’ve even heard that the average age of someone who dies from COVID is higher than the average lifespan of humans.
And how many of the reported deaths are a direct result of putting recovering nursing home patients back into nursing homes, further exposing the most at risk demographic of this disease?
I’ve heard hospitalization rate is one of the most important stats to follow, but it’d be really interesting for me to see a breakdown of these statistics by age and who is truly at risk. Especially because so many deaths can be attributed to a flawed response by local officials in respect to nursing homes, elderly, etc.
Thoughts? Or am I just totally off the mark here?
Various public health agencies do put out snapshots of hospitalizations and fatalities by age, but there’s no centralized database with an API where it would be possible to report on that regularly.
Yes, it is true that around 65% of the people hospitalized are over the age of 60. But that means that there are still a lot of younger people who get severely ill or die. And there’s the problem. If you’re in your 20’s, you have a very small chance of anything bad happening to you. But you also are around a lot of people who are older or who are immuno-compromised. How do you run an economy without those people?
Countries around the world understand this relationship and don’t try to give people a false choice — either health or the economy. We are one of the few countries that’s done that, and the results are not something that other countries want to emulate.
Also, keep in mind that if the hospital system gets overwhelmed with Covid patients, no matter what their age, everyone’s health care disappears, no matter what their age.
Thank you for some more insight in this. There’s just sooooo much information and it’s challenging to dissect it all. Everyone has their own take on the matter and what the right approach is and it sucks that it’s become so politicized.
I hope people can take proper pre-cautions, vet the information they are exposed to, and assume the inveitable risk of stepping outside your doorstep every day.
Ultimately, until this disease proves to be more fatal, particularly to those under 65, I find it very hard for a second shut down to occur.
In SD, 73% of the deaths have been people over 70. If we extrapolated that to the entire US, that would mean 33,338 deaths for people under 70. Yes, most of these people would be over 50, but I still think it would be very difficult to maintain a vibrant economy when you shout out everyone over 50, especially when that segment of the population represents the bulk of expendable income.
Also, I keep repeating this, but it’s important. Shutdowns are a “hammer” that’s used when all else fails. If you have a good infrastructure of test-trace-isolate, it’s not necessary. If you don’t have that, hospitals get overwhelmed.
Had we not wasted the entire month of February and most of March, we might not have had to do a shutdown at all, or if we did, we’d be coming out of it the way countries in Europe are.