Ignorance Closes California

July 13, 2020

Well, most of it, anyway.

Gov. Newsom announced today that all inside activities throughout California are being shut down. The data supports that decision. The pandemic is out of control in our state. The lowest Zorgi Score for any county in southern California is 8.2, but the average is around 13.

Who are the ignorant people who helped bring this about?

They are the apolitical people who aren’t paying attention, and go to multi-generational parties inside, where the virus loves to propagate. They are young people who think they’re invulnerable. The worst of them are the “political” types who want to proclaim their allegiance to Trump by refusing to wear a mask or follow elementary precautions.

So thank you ignorant people. Thanks for ruining our economy. Thanks for driving small businesses out of business. Thanks for making a living hell out of the lives of thousands of medical personnel who have to take care of you when you get sick. Thanks for showing us how your selfishness affects not just you, but our entire society.

/rant

Deconstructing county data: San Diego, Los Angeles, and Orange County.

Continuing with my train of thinking from yesterday, today I’m going to dissect the “Vital Statistics” Charts from Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties. If you’re reading this on social media, only the essential charts and tables are shown. To see the rest of them, look at today’s post on my website, zorgi.me.

Because cases and tests are on the same linear scale [CVS3a], one might not appreciate the 152% increase in cases. Yes, testing has increased significantly, but the positivity rate of 10.4% is still double what it ought to be. And even though testing has ramped up significantly in the last 5 days, there is no guarantee that will continue, especially if national shortages of testing supplies hamper that effort.

In Orange [CVS4a], daily cases have increased by 366%, while testing has only increased 27%. The real problem here, though, is the positivity rate of 14.1%. That is the highest of the three counties in southern California that publish testing data.

San Diego’s numbers [CVS7a] are the best of the three, with a 43% increase in testing. Daily cases doubled, but the positivity rate is only 5.2%, close to the goal for the state.

One of the reasons California has to go through a partial shutdown again is the increasing number of hospitalizations, less evident in the LA chart, CVS3b, than in the data from other counties.

LA’s daily hospital number increased by 44%, but in other counties, it was far higher: Kern, 150%; Orange, 101%; Riverside, 111%; San Bernardino, 141%; San Luis Obispo, 120%; and Santa Barbara, 170%. LA’s HUR is a relatively low 12%, but the IUR is now 32%.

Orange is still at a 10% HUR [CVS4b], but daily patients have gone steadily upward, as has the IUR.

San Diego’s hospitalization numbers [CVS7b] are quite a bit more reassuring. While the IUR is up to 35%, it hasn’t risen a great deal over the past month. Hospital patients have gone from around 350 to 460, but the HUR has held pretty steady at a low 7%. ICU patients have only increased slightly, from around 150 to 170.

CVS3c shows an alarming increase in daily fatalities since July 4, a doubling in one week. This is a 7 day moving average, so we’re not just looking at noise from a single day. The CFR, which had gone down to 1.1%, also doubled in a week to 2.2%. The increase was also reflected in the ICU Fatality ratio, which jumped from 3.9% to 6.6%. As I explained yesterday, I call this a “ratio” rather than a “rate” because I do not want to imply that this is the rate of ICU patients that die. It simply shows a correlation.

The one good piece of news in the LA chart is that doubling days have gone from 22 days to 54 days, well out of the danger zone.

Orange County’s daily fatality rate [CVS4c] has doubled, but we’re not talking about large numbers – yet. This may change, because the fatality doubling day rate has plateaued at 27 days, so if it doesn’t change, by next month at this time, we’ll be looking at 4 to 6 fatalities a day. One positive trend is that the CFR has dropped to only 1%.

The one concerning aspect of San Diego’s situation [CVS7c] is the daily fatality number, which has gone from zero one month ago to 5 per day now. As in O.C., the CFR is a low 1.1%. Unlike O.C., though, the doubling days continue to climb, from around 35 days to 54 days.

It should be apparent why San Diego has a lower Zorgi Score than LA or OC. OC fared worse than LA primarily for its increase in daily cases and the drop in doubling days, where they went down 41%, compared to LA’s increase of 10%.

The state Zorgi Scores [SDT1] demonstrate the bad situation in CA, but the far worse one in AZ, FL, NV, and TX, where the pandemic is out of control.

The city Zorgi Scores for SD County [CY1] have Carlsbad leading the pack. Carlsbad mirrors Orange County in some ways — higher income, with lots of people who mistakenly believe they’re immune to the virus or who want to prove how tough they are by not wearing a mask. Consequently, they end up with some of the worst daily case rates in the county.

I’d like to do a city/neighborhood analysis for L.A., but still haven’t been able to find a source with historical data and an API that will allow download for a specific set of neighborhoods/cities and a single date. I’ve communicated with C.J., a person like me to took it upon themselves to do this, but had to give up because of the inconsistencies in reporting from the public health dept. So, if anyone has a source that will require zero manual input on my side, please let me know.

I’m still working on a couple of projects: first, I’m well along in the SD County zip code analysis. I now will track 33 zip codes in SD County instead of 31, because I forgot San Ysidro and Otay Mesa (duh!). I should have Zorgi Scoring for that level in a day or so.

Secondly, I’m working on a commentary about public education. If you are a teacher or work in the public schools, I encourage you to DM me, or email me at zorgi@zorgi.me.

Stay healthy, be well, and wear that mask!

Some helpful links:

4 comments on “Ignorance Closes California

  1. Hi there,
    First off, thank you for all the hard work you are putting into this analysis. I just wanted to point out that I believe there is an error in the calculations for the percentage change values shown in CY4 and CY5. Specifically, the percentage change for the absolute values and values per 10k / 100k are the same. Taking Carlsbad as an example:

    Total Cases Percentage Change = (311-88)/88 = 2.5341 – checks out
    Total Cases per 10k Percentage Change = (27-8)/8 = 1.875 – value shown on CY4 is 2.534

    Daily Cases @ Start Percentage Change = (11-1)/1= 10 – value shown is 11.667 but I imagine the delta is due to rounding in the daily cases
    Daily Cases per 100k Percentage Change = (9-1)/1= 8 – value shown is 11.667 – this is a bit much to account for with rounding errors alone.

    1. Thanks, Brian. I think these really are rounding errors. If the two numbers go in opposite directions, the percentage looks off.
      I’ve already run 7/12 updates, so I couldn’t do the math on yesterday’s post.
      On today’s CY4, I’ve extended carlsbad’s numbers out to hundredths, and rechecked the math. As far as I can tell, it’s right.
      But take a look and let me know if you see anything off.
      Appreciate your vigilance!

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