Comments on today’s report, Wednesday April 15, 2020. THE DATA My main comment today is about data. We have a lot of “data nerds” in this group, yours truly included. When I was in business, I did a lot of data modeling. I was used to having fairly exact data points. I’d like to discuss
Category: Zorgi Blog
April 14, 2020
Comments on today’s report, Monday April 14, 2020. THE DATA I’m making testing the #1 issue today. Most reputable epidemiologists say that we cannot ease out of stay-at-home restrictions without massive testing – both for the virus itself and for antibodies. I’ve included 3 new charts with today’s report: 1) cumulative cases, where the U.S.
April 13, 2020
Comments on today’s report, Monday April 13, 2020. THE DATA The good news today: Encinitas & Carlsbad had 0 new cases today, and San Diego only had 14 new cases, a 1.6% over yesterday. Even SD County was well below the growth rate for California and the U.S., with 43 new cases, a 2.4% growth
April 12, 2020
Comments on today’s report, Sunday April 12, 2020. THE DATA The good news today: as the chart on per-capital new cases per day shows, there was a decrease in every locality. This reflects the fact that about 1/3 of the world’s population is on lockdown. The new chart showing per-capita deaths per day shows how
April 11, 2020
Comments on today’s report, Saturday April 11, 2020. THE DATA The bad news today is that the U.S. is far surpassing any other country in the world in terms of cases and deaths. The per-capital cumulative cases, per-capita new daily cases, and mortality rate exceeds all the state and local areas I’m tracking. Keep in
April 10, 2020
Comments on today’s report, Thursday April 10, 2020. THE DATA California continues to move ahead on the testing front with 417 per 100,000 people. Our state used to be second to last, now it’s 3rd to last in the top ten, ahead of Texas (399) and Florida (316). New York is now at 2,148, which
April 9, 2020
Comments on today’s report, Thursday April 9, 2020. THE DATA Again the mortality rate is of concern, showing a rise across all localities. While it’s slightly over 2% for SD County and California, it continues to rise for the U.S. and the World. In the U.S., 16,548 deaths have been reported, more than double the
April 8, 2020
THE DATA The most concerning thing to me is the mortality rate, which isn’t declining anywhere. We’d expect a somewhat inflated mortality rate from world data, since the testing regime in so many countries is insufficient. But throughout the U.S., testing has increased: for the country, it’s almost doubled, to 663 per 100,000 people, and
April 7, 2020
UPDATE: The Report for April 8 will INCLUDE the City of San Diego, and the city will be included in every report after that. There was a somewhat larger increase in deaths in SD County – 17. But, as the county has made clear, there is typically a lag time between the actual time of
Update #10 – April 6, 2020
Encinitas and Carlsbad are doing pretty well. The moving average doubling rate for Encinitas is over two weeks, and for Carlsbad right at two weeks – much better than California as a whole and the U.S., which are just over a week. San Diego County moving average doubling rate is about 9 days, a good