A few weeks ago, I stopped posting about COVID. With a new President coming in, led by science, I didn’t feel I could add anything new. Then, last night around 2am, I received the following letter from “Dr. A,” who is working in an ICU in Southern California. He originally messaged me a month ago,
Category: Zorgi Blog
Pandemic Wish List – 2020 Hindsight Edition
As every regular reader knows, I’m not a medical expert of any sort. However, I’ve done a ton of research this year and learned more about epidemiology and virology than I thought I’d be capable of at my age. With that in mind, here’s my list of things that I hope are really different when
Vaccine Efficacy
In a reply to a comment last week, I goofed in explaining the efficacy calculation. I have a feeling I’m not the only one who, if asked to describe it on the spur of the moment, would err. So today I’d like to correct that. I’m relying primarily on two sources: Principles of Epidemiology in
Weekly COVID Update – Dec. 18, 2020
The Data Ordinarily, I put commentary on my charts from covidactnow.org. It’s no longer necessary. Everything is going straight up. We are now reaping what we sowed for Thanksgiving. It takes about two weeks after a super-spreading event for cases and hospitalizations to grow, and that’s exactly where we’re at now. When I first started
Weekly COVID Update – Dec. 10, 2020
The Data No one who has a scientific approach to the pandemic expected anything but this, but the numbers are stark. We are facing growth rates that dwarf anything we saw in the spring. This is especially tragic, since in a few days, we will likely start vaccinating Americans, using vaccines that have an incredible
Weekly COVID Update – Dec. 3, 2020
Current Situation: Bad & Getting Worse The charts below show a leveling off and in some cases a slight drop after Thanksgiving. This is most likely a mirage, caused by reporting delays normal for a weekend and compounded by the Thanksgiving holiday. I have not encountered a single serious epidemiologist who thinks were headed for
COVID Update – Nov. 27, 2020
First, I would like to thank everyone who read and commented on my last update. I have to say, I was totally bowled over by the response. At my age, I’m not a social media oriented guy. I deleted my FB account years ago. I have no Twitter account. I was kicked out of NextDoor
COVID Update – Nov. 20
I published my last COVID update slightly over two months ago. In the interim, I was working on a series examining conspiracy theories and the logical fallacies that make them possible. The 11 articles that make up that study are all on zorgi.me. In September, cases were decreasing in California. San Diego, LA, and Orange
American Exceptionalism = 300,000 Deaths?
Today, as we log 180,000 deaths from COVID, we have a grim look into the crystal ball known as the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is part of the University of Washington. The IHME model hit the news way back in April, when they raised the possibility that hospitals could get overwhelmed
County Catchup, Part 2
Kern, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara & Ventura This is the conclusion of the county update for southern CA counties, not including LA, OC and SD. This post doesn’t have charts on the regular localities, you can see all the up to date numbers on the COVID Interactive pages on zorgi.me: Encinitas, Carlsbad, Oceanside &