Update #8 – April 5, 2020

  1. The rate of daily new cases has been relatively flat for 3 or 4 days. If we can keep this rate steady, even at a 20% hospitalization rate we would need somewhere around 375 extra beds over the next month, which is probably within our capacity. Keep up the physical distancing, everyone!
  2. California’s population-normalized testing rate is getting close to the average for the 10 largest states (see chart). New York, with over 1,500 tests per 100K people, is skewing the average. Texas and Georgia have the lowest rates of testing of the top 10 states. This may mean a much higher rate of infection than they are reporting.

Comments from Readers & My Responses

The following are some of the comments from readers on Reddit and other social media platforms where I regularly post. Reader comments are in italics and color. My responses are in plain text. If there is more than one commenter without a response, they are separated by different colors.

Are you putting all of this together yourself?!? WOW!! Thanks so much!!

Thanks, yes I have a staff of one, i.e. me. The real work, though, is being done by agencies gathering the data – SD County Health Dept, the covid tracking project, and Johns Hopkins.

CDC and other know that reported data is underreported. the number of confirmed lab test and deaths are being collected by John Hopkins, LAT, NYT and WP. the lack of test and haphazard protocols as well as 70% confidence levels make this dificult to measure. we may not know the real numbers for 2 years. that siad we must try our best to understand what this is.

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