A few weeks ago, I stopped posting about COVID. With a new President coming in, led by science, I didn’t feel I could add anything new. Then, last night around 2am, I received the following letter from “Dr. A,” who is working in an ICU in Southern California. He originally messaged me a month ago,
Pandemic Wish List – 2020 Hindsight Edition
As every regular reader knows, I’m not a medical expert of any sort. However, I’ve done a ton of research this year and learned more about epidemiology and virology than I thought I’d be capable of at my age. With that in mind, here’s my list of things that I hope are really different when
Weekly COVID Update – Dec. 23, 2020
I hesitated to post this update. This is supposed to be a cheery time of year. But then I realize that if I could persuade even a handful of people to cancel their plans to have a holiday gathering with people outside their household, it would be worth it. First, I’d like you to read
A New, More Contagious COVID Strain?
“Nations around the world are stopping flights from England to prevent the spread of a new strain of COVID that is 70% more contagious.” Have you heard headlines like this in the past few day? I sure have. I’ve got very mixed feelings about commenting on this, because maybe this will scare some public officials
Vaccine Efficacy
In a reply to a comment last week, I goofed in explaining the efficacy calculation. I have a feeling I’m not the only one who, if asked to describe it on the spur of the moment, would err. So today I’d like to correct that. I’m relying primarily on two sources: Principles of Epidemiology in
Learning from Senegal
COVID around the world, Dec. 19, 2020 I have a friend who was a Peace Corps volunteer in Senegal. America’s response to COVID has often been compared to that of a “third world country,” or as Trump calls them, “shithole countries.” My friend sent me a link to a story about how they’re handling the
Weekly COVID Update – Dec. 18, 2020
The Data Ordinarily, I put commentary on my charts from covidactnow.org. It’s no longer necessary. Everything is going straight up. We are now reaping what we sowed for Thanksgiving. It takes about two weeks after a super-spreading event for cases and hospitalizations to grow, and that’s exactly where we’re at now. When I first started
Weekly COVID Update – Dec. 10, 2020
The Data No one who has a scientific approach to the pandemic expected anything but this, but the numbers are stark. We are facing growth rates that dwarf anything we saw in the spring. This is especially tragic, since in a few days, we will likely start vaccinating Americans, using vaccines that have an incredible
Weekly COVID Update – Dec. 3, 2020
Current Situation: Bad & Getting Worse The charts below show a leveling off and in some cases a slight drop after Thanksgiving. This is most likely a mirage, caused by reporting delays normal for a weekend and compounded by the Thanksgiving holiday. I have not encountered a single serious epidemiologist who thinks were headed for
COVID Update – Nov. 27, 2020
First, I would like to thank everyone who read and commented on my last update. I have to say, I was totally bowled over by the response. At my age, I’m not a social media oriented guy. I deleted my FB account years ago. I have no Twitter account. I was kicked out of NextDoor
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